UNEMPLOYMENT IN LARGE CITIES IN POLAND
Krystyna GILGA
Zofia KASIŃSKA
Katarzyna SIPURZYŃSKA-RUDNICKA
Abstrakt
Identification of the change tendencies on large-city labor markets in Poland from the 1990s and the early years of the 218t century may constitute a basis for indicating the futurę trends on these markets for up to the year 2010. The analysis for the years 2003-2004 shows that in large cities (in certain cases delayed by a year in comparison with the national data), the process of subsid- ing of the second unemployment wave (that affected mostly those large cities) has already started. This resulted from recent structural transformations in the recovery of the national economy. The European Union membership should in the near futurę contribute further to the dynamics of economic boom as a result of foreign direct investment inflow and the utilization of structural funds in infrastructural investments in those city agglomerations. Positive changes on the labor market should also be found due to systematic introduction of labor market policy Instruments aimed at meeting the European Employment Strategy, as well as development of metropolitan functions of large cities.
One cannot disregard the significance of demographic conditions of work supply. Seasonal economic migration, especially with respect to young people, will in near futurę contribute to a decrease in work supply. In the long-term perspective (up to 2010), the mitigating impact of demographic factors will be even stronger, with subsiding wave of demographic work resource boom in Poland. According to demographic prognoses for the years 2003-2030, the end of this decade will bring forth an absolute decrease in the economically productive age group [Prognoza, 2004].
Considering the overall socioeconomic and demographic conditions of work supply and work demand on the large-city labor markets in Poland, one may assume a significant limitation of unemployment and approaching the fuli employment mark by most of those cities by the year 2010. Global market eąuilibrium will not, however, contribute to elimination of all work resource economy problems. One of them will be ageing of the population, adding to an inerease in the immobile productive group and the disabled. Another difficult issue will be persistence of the long-term unemployed and the less educated, at risk of social exclusion. Under these conditions, the labor market policy should incorporate a wide spectrum of institutions and social partners to help solve these problems.
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