Sources of Uncertainty in Formulation of the Cognitive Scenarios for Development of Water Management
Tomasz WALCZYKIEWICZ
Anna DUBEL
##semicolon##
https://doi.org/10.25167/ees.2017.43.6
Abstrakt
Uncertainty is a frequent obstacle in decision making process, therefore understanding its sources might facilitate this process and increase its effectiveness. The objective of the paper is to identify the sources of uncertainty in planning in water management, which have been revealed and identified by carrying out the process of developing cognitive scenarios in the Klimat project (POIG.01.03.01-14-011/08). The paper discusses scenarios for development of water management and the development process thereof in the Klimat project. Selection of literature is presented, showcasing other projects in which scenario analyses of this type from around the world have been performed. A method of formulating development scenarios in water economy is presented, along with its results, which reveal the sources of uncertainties in water management planning.
##semicolon##
scenario##common.commaListSeparator## water##common.commaListSeparator## management##common.commaListSeparator## expert##submission.citations##
Alcamo, J. (2009). The SAS approach: Combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios. In: J. Alcamo (Ed.), Environmental futures: the practice of environmental scenario analysis. Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment 2: 123-150.
Dubel, A. (2016). Metodyka opracowywania scenariuszy wspomagających podejmowanie strategicznych decyzji w sektorze gospodarki wodnej. Gospodarka w praktyce i teorii 3(44).
Flörke, M., Alcamo, J. (2004). European Outlook on Water Use. Kassel: University of Kassel, Center for Environmental Systems Research.
GEO-4. (2007). Environment for development. UNEP.
GEO-5. (2012). Environment for the future we want. UNEP.
Giełczewski, M.; Stelmaszczyk, M.; Piniewski, M.; Okruszko, T. (2011). How can we involve stakeholders in the development of water scenarios? Narew River Basin case study. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2 (2–3): 166–179.
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (2008). Washington D.C.: US Government Printing Office.
Hunt, D.V. L. et al. (2011). Scenario Archetypes: Converging rather than Diverging Themes. 1st World Sustainability Forum.
Kok, K.; van Vliet, M.; Baerlund, I.; Dubel, A.; Sendzimir, J. (2010). Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(5): 835-851.
Maciejewski, W.; Walczykiewicz, T. (2012). Zrównoważone gospodarowanie zasobami wodnymi oraz infrastrukturą hydrotechniczną w świetle prognozowanych zmian klimatycznych. Kraków: IMGW-PIB.
Müller, A. W. (2008). Strategic Foresight - Prozesse strategischer Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen. Zürich: Dis. Universität Zürich.
O’Neill, B.C., et al. (2015). The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 2015.
Walczykiewicz, T. (2010). Ryzyko w zintegrowanym zarządzaniu zasobami wodnymi. Warszawa: IMGW.
Zhovtonog, O.; Hoffmann, M.; Polishuk, V.; Dubel, A. (2011). New planning technique to master the future of water on local and regional level in Ukraine. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2(2-3): 189–200.
Dubel, A. (2016). Metodyka opracowywania scenariuszy wspomagających podejmowanie strategicznych decyzji w sektorze gospodarki wodnej. Gospodarka w praktyce i teorii 3(44).
Flörke, M., Alcamo, J. (2004). European Outlook on Water Use. Kassel: University of Kassel, Center for Environmental Systems Research.
GEO-4. (2007). Environment for development. UNEP.
GEO-5. (2012). Environment for the future we want. UNEP.
Giełczewski, M.; Stelmaszczyk, M.; Piniewski, M.; Okruszko, T. (2011). How can we involve stakeholders in the development of water scenarios? Narew River Basin case study. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2 (2–3): 166–179.
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (2008). Washington D.C.: US Government Printing Office.
Hunt, D.V. L. et al. (2011). Scenario Archetypes: Converging rather than Diverging Themes. 1st World Sustainability Forum.
Kok, K.; van Vliet, M.; Baerlund, I.; Dubel, A.; Sendzimir, J. (2010). Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(5): 835-851.
Maciejewski, W.; Walczykiewicz, T. (2012). Zrównoważone gospodarowanie zasobami wodnymi oraz infrastrukturą hydrotechniczną w świetle prognozowanych zmian klimatycznych. Kraków: IMGW-PIB.
Müller, A. W. (2008). Strategic Foresight - Prozesse strategischer Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen. Zürich: Dis. Universität Zürich.
O’Neill, B.C., et al. (2015). The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 2015.
Walczykiewicz, T. (2010). Ryzyko w zintegrowanym zarządzaniu zasobami wodnymi. Warszawa: IMGW.
Zhovtonog, O.; Hoffmann, M.; Polishuk, V.; Dubel, A. (2011). New planning technique to master the future of water on local and regional level in Ukraine. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2(2-3): 189–200.
Publikované
2020-11-24
WALCZYKIEWICZ, T., & DUBEL, A. (2020). Sources of Uncertainty in Formulation of the Cognitive Scenarios for Development of Water Management. Economic and Environmental Studies, 17(3 (43), 539–554. https://doi.org/10.25167/ees.2017.43.6
##libcom.authors##
Tomasz WALCZYKIEWICZ##libcom.authors##
Anna DUBEL##libcom.statistics##
##plugins.generic.usageStats.downloads##
##plugins.generic.usageStats.noStats##
Najaktuálnejšie články rovnakého autora (rovnakých autorov)
- Anna Dubel, An economic analysis of the reservoirs reclamation methods in the Kłodnica River catchment , Economic and Environmental Studies: Diel 18 Číslo 1 (45) (2018)
- Anna Dubel, Kaan Bas, Social Perceptions and Attitudes Towards Climate Change in Poland and in Turkey , Economic and Environmental Studies: Diel 17 Číslo 4 (44) (2017)
- Anna DUBEL, Karolina KRÓLIKOWSKA, Nature conservation versus flood protection – participatory conflict resolution for the Białka River Valley , Economic and Environmental Studies: Diel 14 Číslo 4 (32) (2014)
