Business Cycles in the Economic and Monetary Union Border Regions: Towards Convergence or Divergence?
Łukasz Wróblewski
Department of European Studies, Institute of International Business and Economics, Poznań University of Economics and Businesshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3677-043X
Abstract
This study analyzes the problems of business cycles correlation in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) border regions. The analyzed subject matter has been overlooked in broadly defined borderlands studies. This study seeks to evaluate the degree of synchronization of business cycles across the EMU border regions. The article is the first in a cycle of studies on the synchronization of business cycles in the EU border regions and the regional aspects of optimum currency areas. Its methodology involves subject literature analysis, descriptive statistics, and selected statistical methods (Hodrick-Prescott filter and Pearson correlation coefficient).
The study shows that all EMU borderlands are host to both convergent and divergent business cycles. At the same time, the degree of business cycle synchronization among the EMU states does not depend on when (or whether) the single euro currency was adopted. On the other hand, the frequency of business cycle divergence in the EMU borderland regions goes to show that, despite beneficial conditions the economies of these regions are often independent from one another.
Keywords:
border regions, regional business cycles, regional studies, borderland studies, European Union, EMUReferences
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