An application of local indicators of spatial association for the purpose of defining spatial diversification concerning electoral preferences of the inhabitants of Wroclaw
Dariusz Ilnicki
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9147-3767
Krzysztof Janc
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1666-2848
Abstract
The aim of the article is to present the possibilities of using local indicators of spatial association (LISA) in the analysis of social phenomena on the urban scale. Apart from the methodological aspect concentrating on the description and possible applications of LISA, the paper also includes a cognitive aspect. It is related to defining spatial diversification concerning electoral preferences of the inhabitants of Wroclaw during the Sejm and Senate elections in 2007. At the same time, the author attempted to combine the analysis of support for particular political parties (PO, PiS, LiD) and voter turnout in general with the age structure of the voters. Constituencies were used as spatial reference units. In the 2007 Sejm and Senate elections there were 270 of them. Such number of spatial units allowed to identify the phenomenon precisely. As a result of using LISA, concentrations of spatial units with similar characteristic feature values were obtained. This allowed to define the areas of concentration of population with particular electoral preferences. The remaining concentrations of spatial units characterized by similar values are largely distinguished by physical barriers existing in the space of Wroclaw (the main traffic routes and the Oder). The support analyses conducted for the three most important parties (PO, PiS, LiD) revealed that their support is heavily diversified within the city space. This is connected with the special character of inhabitants of particular areas of the city. It needs to be stressed that the performed analysis of connections between electoral preferences and age groups indicates that this feature does not explain electoral attitudes. The influence of age does not have summary character; it is rather an outcome of the main dimensions of the age structure. However, combined with other elements of the urban tissue in the broad sense, the influence of the age factor can account for electoral preferences in large cities. Therefore, the age of voters does not explain electoral preferences itself, but can be useful in explaining this phenomenon on a more appropriate spatial level – the level of constituencies.
Keywords:
neighbourhood, Wroclaw, elections, electoral preferences, age of voters, LISAReferences
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